How Mortgage Rates Benefit From 3 Months Of Worsening Employment Data

For the third month in a row, the economy shed jobs, suggesting that the U.S. is in a recession.
March's monthly loss of 80,000 jobs is the largest since March 2003 and follows January and

February's losses of 76,000 each.

The weak data is edging mortgage rates lower as we head into the weekend.
The connection between poor jobs data and today's falling mortgage rates is a little bit strained, but worth discussing. It all comes down to expectations.

Prior to today, there was an expectation that the Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts would over-ignite the economy sometime this Summer. The Fed has cut 3 percent from the benchmark rate since September 2007.

Meanwhile, consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the economy and people can't spend if they don't earn.

So, after today's report showing fewer workers (and falling confidence levels to boot), the largest component of the economy is expected to sag for a while.

This lack of spending should offset the cumulative impact of the Fed's rate cuts and lowers the expectation for runaway inflation later this year.

Now for the connection: If inflation causes mortgage rates to rise, it's the absence of inflation that causes them to fall.

And that's precisely what we're seeing today.

The Small Statistic Within Consumer Confidence That Didn't Show Up On The News.

Consumer Confidence fell to its lowest point in three years and anybody who watches the evening news can understand why.

Each day, news programs barrage Americans with tales of economic woe and American Opinion is largely shaped by the media.

After enough time, the reporting becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

But, in the Consumer Confidence report, there was a choice piece of data that isn't getting reported by the news programs and it's a rather important piece.

Although fewer consumers expect to buy automobiles and appliances over the next six months, those with plans to buy homes is actually higher by 14 percent.

In other words, despite weakening confidence in the economy, an increasing number of Americans are planning to buy homes this season and next.

Consumers may be motivated to buy this year by a number of factors:

Lower home prices nationwide

Affordable mortgage rates

Fear that mortgage products will require larger downpayment

Regardless, the media is choosing to ignore this part of the story. Instead, the news programs are focusing on the negatives -- just look at the headlines.

It's no wonder that confidence is down -- bad news is all the American Public tends to hear.