The Worst Place To Find Real Estate Statistics

Stories on TV about the national real estate market are misleading to Americans.

This is because there is no such thing as a "national real estate market".

Consider the latest American Housing Survey. It found that there are 124,377,000 homes in America spread across:
50 states, with

1. More than 30,000 incorporated cities, and with
2. An innumerable number of neighborhoods

And yet, the media repeatedly groups all 124 million homes into one giant lump and then gives
an analysis. No matter how you slice and dice the data, a home in Oregon can't be compared to a home in Mississippi.

This is why national real estate statistics are somewhat useless.

To get real estate analysis that matters, look local instead. And I don't mean stats from your state -- I mean stats from your neighborhood. It's the only way to know what's driving home prices on your street.

Unfortunately, finding local data like this isn't easy; it's far too narrow to be covered by the press. So, the best place to get local real estate data is from a local real estate agent or from somebody else with access to raw real estate data in and around your neighborhood.

By talking to "in the market" professionals that know your backyard, you'll get a much clearer picture of your local market -- good or bad -- than the national media could ever provide.

Real estate is a local market so your real estate data should be local, too.

Experts Agree That The Housing Bill Should Help The Economy

This article was taken from Utah.Business. I thought the article gave added insight into what others are thinking about the bill. It seems to be mostly positive.

President Bush signed a massive housing bill last week, a measure considered to be one of the most significant housing legislation acts in decades. H.R. 3221, the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008, promises to help thousands of struggling homeowners and stabilize the financial market.

But how will this new housing law affect Utah homeowners and businesses? The Salt Lake City Chamber thinks the bill will be the boost Utah’s economy needs. “As a business community, [Salt Lake Chamber members] feel it will have some very positive impacts,” said Chris Redgrave, vice president and general manager of Bonneville Salt Lake Radio and chair of the Salt Lake Chamber’s Board of Governors. “Not only for the nation, but for local home owners, potential home owners and Utah businesses.”

One of the bill’s key provisions gives first time homebuyers a $7,500 dollar-for-dollar tax credit. This, according to Redgrave, is the incentive that Utah’s hesitant homebuyers have been waiting for. “The tax credit provided will give incentives for qualified buyers to enter the market. The increase in buyers will put an increase in demand of homes,” she said, adding that the incentive couldn’t come at a better time for first time buyers. “This is a great time to buy because the interest rate is still really good at around 6 percent and there’s a large selection of homes in the market. It doesn’t take much to get the ball rolling and the federal government has done its part. Now it’s up to the savvy Utah consumers to take advantage of this benefit.”

Chris Gamvroulas, Salt Lake Chamber Board of Governors member and president of Ivory Development said that the bill will boost many other industries beyond the housing sector. “We suspect that this will stimulate not just the home buying, but many other sectors of our economy, like manufacturing, service and the labor pool. This will be a tremendous help.”

The bill also permanently increases the FHA loan limit from $417,000 to $625,500 effective January 1, 2009. Chris Sloan, president elect of the Utah Association of Realtors, said that by increasing the FHA loan limit, more people will be able to move into their dream homes. “One of the biggest reasons we had the slow down is because of the difficulty for people to obtain mortgage funds. This will make an avenue available for people who need affordable, stable mortgage financing,” he said. “It also allows people in the starter home to get affordable and stable financing to move up into those more expensive homes,” said Sloan.

Sloan added that it will also help homeowners who are facing foreclosure, “by allowing them to refinance to a stable, affordable FHA mortgage,” he said, adding that the bill is likely to prevent Utah from experiencing the high foreclosure rates that the rest of the nation is facing. “This bill will help thousands of Utah families achieve the American dream of home ownership,” said Sloan.

Where Does Your Hometown Rank On "The 2008 100 Best Places To Live!"

Move to Plymouth, Minnesota, says Money Magazine in its 2008 100 Best Places To Live survey.

According to the report, the Twin Cities satellite has all of the makings of a desirable home town:

Affordable homes
Excellent schools
Low crime
Lots of jobs
Abundant "outdoor life"

The top 5 cities as listed by Money Magazine are the aforementioned Plymouth, Fort Collins (CO), Naperville (IL), Irvine (CA), and Franklin Township (NJ).

The 100 Best Places To Live survey is also sortable by metrics, including housing affordability, job growth potential, and cleanest air.

Why Are Home Buyers Coming Back To The Market Now? The Answer Is, There Is Suddenly Good Value In Real Estate.

Statistics won't always tell the whole story, but they often provide good perspective.

The graph at right shows Existing Home Sales data going back three years. An "existing home" is one that can't be called new construction; a "used home", so to speak.

Note the steep decline from 2005 through late-2007.

Since November, however, Existing Home Sales have remained within a very tight range and appear to have reached a flattening point.

The Existing Home Sales data supports the word-on-the-street from real estate agents nationwide that buyers are returning to the housing market in search of good values.

But let's not forget -- demand is only half of the story. There is the supply factor, too, and the supply side of the housing market is showing the same leveling signs as the demand part.

Looking at the national inventory at left, the number of existing homes for sale has hovered near 4.5 million for the last several months. No change suggests strength.

Now again, statistics won't tell the whole story but there are plenty of positive signals from the real estate market right now, just like there are negative ones, too.

This is one reason why real estate data causes so much debate -- people want to take an either/or proposition about the state of the real estate and it doesn't work like that. Real estate can be simultaneously strong and weak and when it is, buyers look for value.

Perhaps this is why the national housing data is beginning to level off after a 3-year slide.

There's good values to be had, and today's home buyers know it.

(Images courtesy: Wall Street Journal Online)

Now is the time to buy!

With interest rates at all time lows and home prices falling I think now is a very good time to buy in almost any area of the country.

I was reading a good article on CNBC today that I thought you all might like to look at. The URL is http://www.cnbc.com/id/24155570

It just talks about how the majority of those polled feel now is a good time to buy.

In 2008, Home Loans Are One Day Cheap, The Next Day Expensive

When mortgage rates change rapidly, it's a fiscal challenge to shop for a home and/or home loan.

Lately, mortgage rates have been especially volatile, mirroring the wild moves of the stock market.

Here's how up-and-down stock markets have been in 2008: Through last week, the S&P 500 Index changed more than 1 percent per day on 28 separate days.

This represents 52 percent of all trading days and is the most volatile measurement since 1938.
Mortgage financing is impacted by stock market changes because when money flows into stocks, it tends to come from bond markets. And, when money leaves stocks, it tends to "gets parked" in bond markets.

Because mortgage bonds set mortgage rates, you can understand how stock market volatility can make it difficult to predict what home loan payments might look like.

Volatility is expected to continue for the next several quarters so if you see a mortgage rate you like today, consider locking it right away -- it probably won't last long.

Source U.S. Stock Volatility Climbs to Highest in 70 Years, S&P Says Jeff Kearns Bloomberg, March 20, 2008 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=av840GLwE4UA&refer=home

Why "Median Sales Price" Reports Aren't Helpful For Housing Markets

Each month, the Commerce Department and the National Association of REALTORS® release national housing data.

The former's release is called the New Residential Sales report and the latter's is called the Existing Home Sales report.

Both reports highlight the "median sales price", the point at which half of the homes in the U.S. sold for more, and half sold for less.

Last month, the median sales prices were as follows:

Existing homes: Down 8.2 percent
New homes: Down 2.7 percent

The very definition of "median", however, makes this data point useless for national housing statistics.

If a large amount of homes are sold in regions where home prices are traditionally high, the median sales price will trend higher.

If a large amount of homes are sold in regions where home prices are traditionally low, the median sales price will trend lower.

Again, all that the median sales price tells us is the price point at which half the homes in the country sold for more, and half sold for less.

Real estate is a local phenomenon and so grouping the entire country's supply of homes together makes little sense. A home in San Francisco has little to do with a home in Omaha.

To get a true gauge of your local market, talk to a real estate agent that knows the local market well. You'll not only get meaningful statistics about a neighborhood, but you'll get good insights, too.

Now or Later

For Americans wanting to buy a new home or refinance their current one there are always two times to do it:

1. Now
2. Later

So why ask a mortgage guy if now is a good time or not? Because no matter how low houses go this year, if you can't get a loan to help you buy it, it will do you no good.

Over the past few months I have seen a lot of changes to different loan programs out there and I believe many more changes are coming. So is now I good time to buy or refinance, I would say it absolutely is!

So why is it a good time to buy now? Because none of us mortgage guys can predict what the market will be doing later.

"Now" is full of knowns. "Later" is full of unknowns.

The mortgage markets are tightening (less money in them) and so lenders have no choice but to tighten their lending practices. Think of it this way, if you only have so much money to lend won't you just want to lend it to the "best" people, the ones you are very sure will be able to pay it back?!

What are these changes that will take place?

I believe their

1. Second Mortgages -- currently most banks will allow you to go up to 90% of the value of your home, soon it will drop to 80%
2. Credit scores -- currently a 680 score puts you in the safe zone for pricing, expect that score to go up to 720.
3. More money down -- currently there are still no money down options, expect everything to grow by 5% down. So if you were putting nothing down before, now it will be 5%, or if you were putting 10% down for a program soon it will be 15%.
4. Stated income programs -- we currently can still do them, but some lenders have already started to drop those programs, because of the obvious risks associated with them.
5. Property type -- now condos and single family residences are treated basically the same when lending money, expect that to change, you will be required to put more money down on a condo then a single family residence.
6. Every mortgage product will get an overhaul -- Expect many of the products you know now to change in the next little bit.

So back to the question, is now a good time to buy???

Yes it is, not because home prices are priced low right now, but because come Fall you may not be able to purchase a home because of lack of credit, down payment or any of the reasons listed above.