Why Home Values May Rise When Home Building Falls To A 17 Year Low

A "Housing Start" is a new home on which construction has commenced and in May, Housing Starts fell to a 17-year low nationally.

At first glance, this may seem like a negative for the already-battered U.S. housing market.

It's not.

Falling Housing Starts reflects the broader real estate market and shows us that builders are working hard to get their already-built homes "off the books".

It would be foolish for them to build new homes now -- each new unit makes selling the existing ones tougher.

So, when we look at the figure objectively, we can see that Housing Starts reaching a 17-year low is actually good news -- real estate prices are based on Supply and Demand, after all.

With Housing Starts touching new lows, we can infer that there will be fewer new homes coming on the market in the coming months and that should help support higher home values
nationwide for everyone.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal Online)

In 2008, Home Loans Are One Day Cheap, The Next Day Expensive

When mortgage rates change rapidly, it's a fiscal challenge to shop for a home and/or home loan.

Lately, mortgage rates have been especially volatile, mirroring the wild moves of the stock market.

Here's how up-and-down stock markets have been in 2008: Through last week, the S&P 500 Index changed more than 1 percent per day on 28 separate days.

This represents 52 percent of all trading days and is the most volatile measurement since 1938.
Mortgage financing is impacted by stock market changes because when money flows into stocks, it tends to come from bond markets. And, when money leaves stocks, it tends to "gets parked" in bond markets.

Because mortgage bonds set mortgage rates, you can understand how stock market volatility can make it difficult to predict what home loan payments might look like.

Volatility is expected to continue for the next several quarters so if you see a mortgage rate you like today, consider locking it right away -- it probably won't last long.

Source U.S. Stock Volatility Climbs to Highest in 70 Years, S&P Says Jeff Kearns Bloomberg, March 20, 2008 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=av840GLwE4UA&refer=home

The Small Statistic Within Consumer Confidence That Didn't Show Up On The News.

Consumer Confidence fell to its lowest point in three years and anybody who watches the evening news can understand why.

Each day, news programs barrage Americans with tales of economic woe and American Opinion is largely shaped by the media.

After enough time, the reporting becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

But, in the Consumer Confidence report, there was a choice piece of data that isn't getting reported by the news programs and it's a rather important piece.

Although fewer consumers expect to buy automobiles and appliances over the next six months, those with plans to buy homes is actually higher by 14 percent.

In other words, despite weakening confidence in the economy, an increasing number of Americans are planning to buy homes this season and next.

Consumers may be motivated to buy this year by a number of factors:

Lower home prices nationwide

Affordable mortgage rates

Fear that mortgage products will require larger downpayment

Regardless, the media is choosing to ignore this part of the story. Instead, the news programs are focusing on the negatives -- just look at the headlines.

It's no wonder that confidence is down -- bad news is all the American Public tends to hear.

Why "Median Sales Price" Reports Aren't Helpful For Housing Markets

Each month, the Commerce Department and the National Association of REALTORS® release national housing data.

The former's release is called the New Residential Sales report and the latter's is called the Existing Home Sales report.

Both reports highlight the "median sales price", the point at which half of the homes in the U.S. sold for more, and half sold for less.

Last month, the median sales prices were as follows:

Existing homes: Down 8.2 percent
New homes: Down 2.7 percent

The very definition of "median", however, makes this data point useless for national housing statistics.

If a large amount of homes are sold in regions where home prices are traditionally high, the median sales price will trend higher.

If a large amount of homes are sold in regions where home prices are traditionally low, the median sales price will trend lower.

Again, all that the median sales price tells us is the price point at which half the homes in the country sold for more, and half sold for less.

Real estate is a local phenomenon and so grouping the entire country's supply of homes together makes little sense. A home in San Francisco has little to do with a home in Omaha.

To get a true gauge of your local market, talk to a real estate agent that knows the local market well. You'll not only get meaningful statistics about a neighborhood, but you'll get good insights, too.