Foreclosure Rates Are Falling Despite What You Read In The News

According to RealtyTrac, the rate of foreclosures across the U.S. is slowing. Versus May, June foreclosures fell at a 3 percent clip.

25 states showed improvement month-over-month, led by many of the same areas that had fueled foreclosure activity in 2007.

A sampling of RealtyTrac's data includes:

California : Foreclosures down 4.54 percent
Georgia : Foreclosures down 14.91 percent
Arizona : Foreclosures down 0.07 percent
Michigan : Foreclosures down 6.00 percent
Illinois : Foreclosures down 15.65 percent

However, the improving nature of the data is not what is making news this morning. Instead, the press is reporting that foreclosures are up by half since last year and that bank seizures have tripled.

And while the annual data may be accurate, that doesn't mean that it's necessarily relevant to home buyers and home sellers across the country.

This is because people buying and selling homes don't usually boast an "annual" mentality; when someone's an active participant in the real estate market, the mentality is "right now".

In other words, annual data fits an economist, but month-to-month data fits you.

June's foreclosure data may be the start of a trend, or it may be a blip. It's really too soon to tell.

But the RealtyTrac data reinforces what real estate professionals already know -- that markets all over the country are showing signs of life.

Guess Which States Accounted For More Than 50% of May 2008 Foreclosures

RealtyTrac released its most recent foreclosure statistics and if you only read the headlines, you think the entire country was on the verge of losing its homes.

The underlying data tells a different story, however.
More than half of the country's foreclosure activity in May 2008 was tied to just 4 states in the union:

California (28 percent)

Florida (14 percent)

Arizona (5 percent)

Michigan (5 percent)

In other words, the majority of mortgage defaults are coming from a small minority of states.

See, between 2002 and 2006, California, Florida and Arizona were very popular with real estate speculators, many of whom over-extended themselves on real estate; and Michigan's economy has been decimated by job losses in the auto and manufacturing industries.

In addition, these 4 states are among the nation's most populous. It makes sense that they are distorting the national statistics.

On a local level, the news is not so grim. Not only did 20 states show a reduction in monthly foreclosure activity, but many more fell below the national foreclosure average. That type of story, though, doesn't make for good headlines, is all.

Search the full May 2008 foreclosure report for yourself on RealtyTrac's Web site.

The 80 / 20 Rule Applies To Foreclosures

RealtyTrac released Q1 2008 foreclosure statistics and the data follows an interesting statistical phenomenon most commonly known as the "80/20 Rule".

The 80/20 Rule states that 80 percent of the effects come from 20 percent of the causes.

In this case, 80 percent of bank repossessions in the first three months of 2008 came from 20 percent of the states in the union.

Accounting for 156,463 repossessed homes nationwide:

1. California (40,023 homes)
2. Texas (14,935 homes)
3. Michigan (12,016 homes)
4. Ohio (10,299 homes)
5. Florida (10,185 homes)
6. Georgia (8,265 homes)
7. Arizona (7,956 homes)
8. Colorado (7,022 homes)
9. Tennessee (4,533 homes)
10. Indiana (4,446 homes)
11. Illinois (4,216 homes)

Overall, 0.55 percent of homes were repossessed by banks in the first quarter.

Foreclosures in America

Breaking out the data state-by-state, we can see that the Pareto Principle holds: 80 percent of the bank repossessions last month came from 20 percent of the states in the union.